# On the sign of investment uncertainty relationship

This paper disentangles the effects of uncertainty in explaining the heterogeneity of firms' investments. In particular, following Bloom [ plored the relationship between inflation uncertainty and investment. addresses the sign of the investment and uncertainty relationship Caballero ( ). The effect of uncertainty on investment is widely considered to have a negative sign in the real option literature. Contrary to prediction of conventional real option .

In this case it's half a tenth up and half a tenth down, so Thus it is understood that The numbers in parentheses apply to the numeral left of themselves, and are not part of that number, but part of a notation of uncertainty. They apply to the least significant digits. This can occur when using a logarithmic scale, for example.

### On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship

Uncertainty of a measurement can be determined by repeating a measurement to arrive at an estimate of the standard deviation of the values. Then, any single value has an uncertainty equal to the standard deviation. However, if the values are averaged, then the mean measurement value has a much smaller uncertainty, equal to the standard error of the mean, which is the standard deviation divided by the square root of the number of measurements.

This procedure neglects systematic errorshowever. For example, it is likely that for If the width of the interval is doubled, then probably only 4.

## The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics

These values follow from the properties of the normal distributionand they apply only if the measurement process produces normally distributed errors. In that case, the quoted standard errors are easily converted to The lower the accuracy and precision of an instrument, the larger the measurement uncertainty is.

Notice that precision is often determined as the standard deviation of the repeated measures of a given value, namely using the same method described above to assess measurement uncertainty. However, this method is correct only when the instrument is accurate. When it is inaccurate, the uncertainty is larger than the standard deviation of the repeated measures, and it appears evident that the uncertainty does not depend only on instrumental precision.

Uncertainty and the media[ edit ] Uncertainty in science, and science in general, may be interpreted differently in the public sphere than in the scientific community. Also, in the public realm, there are often many scientific voices giving input on a single topic.

For example, global warming contrarian activists took the advice of Frank Luntz to frame global warming as an issue of scientific uncertainty, which was a precursor to the conflict frame used by journalists when reporting the issue. Journalists may inflate uncertainty making the science seem more uncertain than it really is or downplay uncertainty making the science seem more certain than it really is.

Because the general public in the United States generally trusts scientists, when science stories are covered without alarm-raising cues from special interest organizations religious groups, environmental organizations, political factions, etc.

In scientific modellingin which the prediction of future events should be understood to have a range of expected values In optimizationuncertainty permits one to describe situations where the user does not have full control on the final outcome of the optimization procedure, see scenario optimization and stochastic optimization.

We show that an increase in uncertainty of the project may actually have positive or negative effects on the probability of investing depending on which market parameters are called to restore the asset price equilibrium condition.

## On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship

Investment; Uncertainty, Real Options. Under these assumptions, the investment opportunity is seen as a contingent claim a perpetual call option on the value of the project which, providing that the project does not enlarge the opportunity set available to investors in the capital markets, can be priced using a replication argument Cox, Ingersoll and Ross, However, this trigger value is greater than the direct cost of the project and depends, among other things, on the uncertainty of the asset and satisfies the condition that it is higher the higher is the variance of the project.

This has led to the conclusion that an increased uncertainty has a negative effect on the investment Dixit and Pindyck,ch. Varying the instantaneous variance of the project, an increase decrease in this probability has a positive negative effect on investment Sarkar,pag. Although enticing, the probability measure evaluated by Sarkar seems to suffer two short- comings. With this objective in mind we evaluate the option to invest as an American call option with expiring time to explicitly account for the limited ability to delay the investment decision.

### EconPapers: On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship

In the following section, after recalling the real option model and stating our hypotheses subsection 2. Section 3 presents some numerical results, which allow us to compare our approach to that of Sarkar.

Finally some conclusions are stated in section 4. In particular we make the following assumptions. The investment project must be accepted by the investor before a date Tthe expiry time.